Research Staff

Adam Smith, Ph.D.
Ecologist
Center for Conservation and Sustainable Development

office phone: + 1 (314) 577-9473 x76314
email: adam.smith@mobot.org

Missouri Botanical Garden
4344 Shaw Blvd.
St. Louis, MO 63110
USA

Education
Ph.D., Energy and Resources, University of California, Berkeley, 2009
M.A., Ecology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 2006
B.A., Biology, McPherson College, 1994

I am concerned about the rapidity with which humans are removing biological diversity from the Earth and the consequences of a depauperate biosphere for human wellbeing. My current research involves estimating the climate change vulnerability of threatened plant species of the North American Central Highlands (the Ozarks, Ouachitas, and Tennessee’s Central Basin). In previous work I have addressed the transferability of species distribution models across timespans relevant to conservation; community assembly; applications of the species-area relationship in conservation; and marine conservation policy. Much of my research involves modeling and field work.

Web Pages
Personal web page

Available upon request

Beever, E.A., Westover, M., Smith, A.B., Gerraty, F., Billman, P., and Smith, F. In press. Combining past and contemporary species occurrences with ordinal species distribution modeling to investigate responses to climate change. Ecography. doi: 10.1111/ecog.07382 Kass, J.M., Smith, A.B., Warren, D.L., Vignali, S., Schmitt, S., Aiello-Lammens, M.E., de Andrade, A.F.A., Arlé, E., Barbosa, A.M., Broennimann, O., Cobos, M.E., Guéguen, M., Guisan, A., Merow, C., Naimi, B., Nenzén, H., Nobis, M.P., Ondo, I., Osorio-Olvera, L., Owens, H.L., Pinilla-Buitrago, G., Robertson, M., Sánchez-Tapia, A., Thuiller, W., Valavi R., Velazco, S.J.E., Zizka, A., Zurrell, D. In press. Achieving higher standards in species distribution modeling by leveraging the diversity of available software. Ecography. doi: 10.1111/ecog.07346 Ashraf, U., Smith, A.B., Morelli, T.L., and Hernandez, R.R. 2024. Climate-smart siting for renewable energy expansion. iScience 27:110666. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.110666 and correction doi: 10.1038/s41558-024-02216-7 Austin, M.W., Smith, A.B., Olsen, K.M., Hoch, P.C., Krakos, K.N., Schmocker, S.P., and Miller-Struttmann, N.E. 2024. Climate change increases flowering duration, driving phenological reassembly and elevated co-flowering richness. 2024. New Phytologist 243:2486-2500. doi: 10.1111/nph.19994 Naughtin*, S., Castilla, A.R., Smith, A.B., Strand, A.E., Dawson, A., Hoban, S., Abhainn, E.A., Romero-Severson, J., and Robinson, J.D. In press. Integrating genomic data and simulations to evaluate alternative species distribution models and improve confidence in predictions of glacial refugia and future responses to climate change. Ecography. doi: 10.1111/ecog.07196 * Undergraduate author Ashraf, U., Morelli, T.L., Smith, A.B., and Hernandez, R.R. 2024. Aligning renewable energy expansion with climate-driven range shifts. Nature Climate Change 14:242-246. doi: 10.1038/s41558-024-01941-3 Castilla A.R., A. Brown, S. Hoban, E.A. Abhainn, J.D. Robinson, J. Romero-Severson, A.B. Smith, A.E. Strand, J.R. Tipton, and A. Dawson. 2024 Integrative demographic modeling reduces uncertainty in estimated rates of species’ historical range shifts. Journal of Biogeography 51:325-336. doi: 10.1111/jbi.14754 Bartlett*, K., Austin, M.A., Beck, J., Zanne†, A., and Smith†, A.B. 2023. Beyond climate? Factors determining fruiting and flowering phenology across a genus over 117 years. American Journal of Botany 110:e16188. * Undergraduate author. † Co-senior authors. doi: 10.1002/ajb2.16188 Erickson, K.D. and Smith, A.B. 2023. Modeling the rarest of the rare: A comparison between multi-species distribution models, ensembles of small models, and single-species models at extremely low sample sizes. Ecography 2023:e06500. doi: 10.1111/ecog.06500 Beever, E.A., Wilkening, J.L., Billman, P., Thurman, L., Ernest, K., Wright, D., Gill, A, Craighead, A., Helmstetter, N.A., Svancara, L.K., Camp, M.J., Bhattacharyya, S., Fitzgerald, J., Hirose, J.M.R., Westover, M., Gerraty, F., Klingler, K., Schmidt, D.A., Ryals, D.,. Brown, R., Clark, S., Clayton, N. Collins, G., Cutting, K., Doak, D., Epps, C.W., Foley, J., French, J. Hayes, C.L., Mills, Z., Moyer-Horner, L., Nichols, L., Orlofsky, K., Peacock, M., Penzel, N. Peterson, J., Ramsay, N., Rickman, T., Robinson, M., Robison, H. Rowe, K., Rowe, K., Russello, M., Smith, A.B., Stewart, J.E.A., Thompson, W., Thorne, J.H., Watterhouse, M., Weber, S., and Wilson, K. 2023. Geographic and taxonomic variation in adaptive capacity among mountain-dwelling small mammals: implications for conservation status and actions. Biological Conservation 282:109942. doi: 10.1016/j.biocon.2023.109942 Smith, A.B., Murphy, S.J., Henderson, D., and Erickson, K.D. 2023. Including imprecisely georeferenced specimens improves accuracy of species distribution models and estimates of niche breadth. Global Ecology and Biogeography 32:342-255. doi: 10.1111/geb.13628; open-access pre-print doi: 10.1101/2021.06.10.447988 Austin, M.A., Cole*, P., Olsen, K., and Smith, A.B. 2022. Climate change is associated with increased allocation to potential outcrossing in a common mixed mating species. American Journal of Botany 109:1085-1096. doi: 10.1002/ajb2.16021 * Undergraduate author. Johnson, L., Galliart, M., Alsdurf, J., Maricle, B.R., Baer, S.G., Bello, N.M., Gibson, D.J., and Smith, A.B. 2022. Reciprocal gardens as gold standard to detect local adaptation in grassland species: New opportunities moving into the 21st century. Journal of Ecology 110:1054-1071. doi: 10.1111/1365-2745.13695 Murphy, S.J. and Smith, A.B. 2021. What can community ecology learn from species distribution models? Ecosphere 12:e03864. doi: 10.1002/ecs2.3864 Erickson, K.D. and Smith, A.B. 2021. Accounting for imperfect detection in data from museums and herbaria when modeling species distributions: Combining and contrasting data-level versus model-level bias correction. Ecography 44:1341-1352. doi: 10.1111/ecog.05679 Santos*, M.J., Smith*, A.B., Dekker, S.C., Eppinga, M.B., Leitão, P.J., Moreno-Mateo, D., Morueta-Holme, N., and Ruggieri, M. 2021. The role of land use and land cover change in climate change vulnerability assessments of biodiversity: A systematic review. Landscape Ecology 36:3367-3382. doi: 10.1007/s10980-021-01276-w * Equal contribution. Mohn, R.A., Oleas, N.H., Smith, A.B., Swift, J.F., Yatskievych, G., and Edwards, C. 2021. The phylogeographic history of a range disjunction in eastern North America: the role of post-glacial expansion into newly suitable habitat. American Journal of Botany 108:1042-1057. doi: 10.1002/ajb2.1686 Smith, A.B., and Santos, M.J. 2020. Testing the ability of species distribution models to infer variable importance. Ecography 43:1801-1813. doi: 10.1111/ecog.05317 Morelli*, T.L., Smith*, A.B., Mancini, A.N., Balko, E.A., Borgerson, C., Dolch, R., Farris, Z., Federman, S., Golden, C.D., Holmes, S.M., Irwin, M., Jacobs, R.L., Johnson, S., King, T., Lehman, S.M., Louis Jr., E.E., Murphy, A., Randriahaingo, H.N.T., Randrianarimanana, H.L.Lucien, Ratsimbazafy, J., Razafindratsima, O.H., Baden, A.L. 2020. The fate of Madagascar’s rainforest habitat. Nature Climate Change 10:89-96. doi: 10.1038/s41558-019-0647-x * Equal contribution. Hoban, S., Dawson, A. Robinson, J., Smith, A.B., Strand, A. 2019. Inference of biogeographic history by formally integrating distinct lines of evidence: genetic, environmental niche, and fossil. Ecography 42:1991-2011. doi: 10.1111/ecog.04327 Smith, A.B., Beever, E.A., Kessler, A.E., Johnston, A.N., Ray, C., Epps, C.W., Lanier, H.C., Klinger, R.C., Rodhouse, T.J., Varner, J., Perrine, J., Seglund, A., Hall, E., Galbreath, K., Anderson, C., Billman, P., Blatz, G., Brewer, J., Vardaro, J.C., Chalfoun, A.D., Collins, G., Craighead, A., Curlis, C., Daly, C., Doak, D.F., East, M., Edwards, M., Erb, L., Ernest, K.A., Fauver, B., Foresman, K., Goehring, K., Hagar, J., Hayes, C.L., Henry, P., Hersey, K., Hilty, S.L., Jacobson, J., Jeffress, M.R., Manning, T.E., Masching, A., Maxwell, B., McCollough, R., McFarland, C., Miskow, E., Morelli, T,L., Moyer-Horner, L., Mueller, M., Nugent, M., Pratt, B., Rasmussen-Flores, M., Rickman, T.H., Robison, H., Rodriguez, A., Rowe, K.M.C., Rowe, K.C., Russello, M.A., Saab, V., Schmidt, A., Stewart, J.A.E., Stuart, J.N., Svancara, L.K., Thompson, W., Timmins, J., Treinish, G., Waterhouse, M.D., Westover, M.K., Wilkening, J., and Yandow, L. 2019. Alternatives to genetic affinity as a context for within-species response to climate. Nature Climate Change 9:787-794. doi: 10.1038/s41558-019-0584-8 Smith, A.B. In press. On evaluating species distribution models with random background sites in place of absences when test presences disproportionately sample suitable habitat. Diversity and Distributions. Smith, A.B. In press. The relative influence of temperature, moisture, and their interaction on range limits of mammals over the past century. Global Ecology and Biogeography Morelli, T.L., A.B. Smith, C. Kastely, I. Mastroserio, C. Moritz, and S. Beissinger. 2012. Anthropogenic refugia ameliorate the severe climate-related decline of a montane mammal along its trailing edge. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 279: 4279-4286. Barnosky, A.D, E.A. Hadly, J. Bascompte, E.L. Berlow, J.H. Brown, M. Fortelius, W.M. Getz, J. Harte, A. Hastings, P.A. Marquet, N.D. Martinez, A. Mooers, P. Roopnarine, G. Vermeij, J.W. Williams, R. Gillespie, J. Kitzes, C. Marshall, N. Matzke, D.P. Mindell, E. Revilla, A.B. Smith. 2012. Approaching a state-shift in Earth’s biosphere. Nature 486: 52-58. Smith, A.B. 2011. "Convention on Migratory Species of Wild Animals," "International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling," and "Sea Shepherd Conservation Society" in Encyclopedia of Environmental Issues, Salem Press, Pasadena. Smith, A.B. 2010. Caution with curves: Caveats for using the species-area relationship in conservation. Biological Conservation 143: 555-564. Harte, J., A.B. Smith, and D. Storch. 2009. Biodiversity scales from plots to biomes with a universal species-area curve. Ecology Letters 12: 798-797. Sandel, B. and A.B. Smith. 2009. Scale as a lurking factor: Incorporating scale-dependence in experimental ecology. Oikos 118: 1284-1291. Smith, A.B. 2009. "World Conservation Union" and "Dolphins and Porpoises" in Ducth, S.I (ed.) Encyclopedia of Global Warming, Salem Press, Pasadena. Harte, J., Z.T. Zillo, E. Conlisk, and A.B. Smith. 2008. Maximum entropy and the state variable approach to macroecology. Ecology 89: 2700-2711. Srinivasan, U.T., S.P. Carey, E. Hallstein, P.A.T. Higgins, A.C. Kerr, L.E. Koteen, A.B. Smith, R. Watson, J. Harte, and R.B. Norgaard. 2008. The debt of nations and the distribution of ecological impacts from human activities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 105: 1768-1773. Harte, J., E. Conlisk, A. Ostling, J.L. Green, A.B. Smith. 2005. A theory of spatial structure in ecological communities at multiple spatial scales. Ecological Monographs 75: 179-197. Lloyd-Smith, J.O., P.C. Cross, C.J. Briggs, M. Daugherty, W.M. Getz, J. Latto, M.S. Sanchez, A.B. Smith, and A. Swei. 2005. Should we expect population thresholds for wildlife disease? Trends in Ecology and Evolution 20: 511-519.